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Futures wagering-- which is in essence betting on who will win their division, conference, league or the whole kit and caboodle-- is extremely attractive because more times than not the odds are very good. With any sport it is difficult to predict the future, but baseball with its 162 game, seven-month season offers an especially daunting challenge.

The great thing about wagering on futures is you can bet on various teams-- fairly sure bets, up-and-comers, and long shots-- and in the end either cover or win a substantial amount of money without having risked a lot.

This article will focus on two basic topics-- strategies for determining on which teams you’re going to bet and basic methods of betting that can, to a degree, protect your wager.

In betting futures you’ll want to wager on more than one team and spread your bets amongst favorites, teams that have shown improvement, and clubs that might have that chance “Impossible Dream” year. It’s similar to betting March Madness in that you have a much better chance if you spread your money amongst various teams rather than putting everything on one club.

Before you place even one bet, do your research. Magazines, newspapers and the Internet have a wealth of analytical pieces on each team and how they should fair in the upcoming season. If possible, reviewing some back issues to see how various prognosticators have done in the past is not a bad idea. Looking for trends, such as how many analysts have chosen the Yankees to finish first in their division and to go all the way. If you have a particular expert that you find has been fairly accurate and you think that their methodology is sound, that can be extremely helpful.

Read carefully, be selective especially in considering how the analysis has been done and how detailed it is (the more detailed usually the better), and be sure to incorporate your own knowledge of the game.

If an analysis does not include the following beware of its accuracy-- business and management practices, including the team’s budget for player salaries; baseball managerial experience and Minor League system strength. Some more obvious areas that should be covered include key acquisitions, trades and losses; pitching strength and depth; offensive potential and defensive abilities. Team chemistry and other intangibles, overall depth of the team and age/experience of the club are also important to consider.

Feel free to do more detailed research yourself, you certainly may and it can pay off. If, prior to the NHL season, you had read what everyone said about the Ottawa Senators you certainly would have known that they were an improved team.

But when you analyzed the Heatley-Hossa/DeVries trade, looked at how much the Senators had upgraded in terms of speed, scoring, and defense and saw their balance and depth, it became readily apparent that the Senators were the most improved team in the NHL and that they were poised to have a breakout season (which they have thus far). Anyone who says they are a “surprise team” did not do a thorough analysis of the Ottawa Senators.

Baseball, because of its long pre-season, may have more positive hype associated with it than any other sport. Every team seems to have at least one veteran player who’s ready to have a breakout year, a rookie sensation who will make a difference, and a pitcher who can really put the team over the top.

Spring training by its very position in the calendar embodies and symbolizes optimism, signaling the end of a long, wet, cold winter and the start of a time that is defined by lazy, pleasantly warm days. Don’t fall for it, especially if you have a favorite team. Wagering based on spring training hype is as dangerous as its gets.

Also, consider that some previews are written to generate fan interest in a season that is the longest in professional team sports and, thus, will not be overly critical of many teams. Of the 30 major league baseball teams less than half have any chance of making it into the playoffs, and of those who do get to compete in the post-season only three or four possess the potential to win it all.

So you’ve completed your due diligence and you’re considering which teams to pick. Let’s take a look at this year’s futures and see what some of your choices are. The odds below were published the first week of February. Realize that different gaming sites will often present different odds. As an example, in this list the Toronto Blue Jays are 17 to 1 but another odds maker at the same time had them listed at 25 to 1.

MLB
2006 World Series (These are not current odds.)

TeamOdds

TIER 1:
New York Yankees7/2
New York Mets 4/1
St. Louis Cardinals 5/1
Boston Red Sox 7/1
Chicago Cubs 8/1
Chicago White Sox 9/1

TIER 2:
Los Angeles Angels 10/1
Cleveland Indians 12/1
Oakland Athletics 15/1
Houston Astros 15/1
Toronto Blue Jays 17/1

TIER 3:
Atlanta Braves20/1
Philadelphia Phillies 20/1
San Francisco Giants 20/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 20/1
Minnesota Twins 30/1
San Diego Padres 30/1

TIER 4:
Texas Rangers 50/1
Ariz. Diamondbacks50/1
Detroit Tigers 60/1
Wash. Nationals 60/1
Seattle Mariners 70/1
Milwaukee Brewers 80/1
Baltimore Orioles80/1
Tampa Bay Rays 100/1
Cincinnati Reds 100/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 125/1
Colorado Rockies 150/1
Florida Marlins 200/1
Kansas City Royals 300/1

For the purpose of this exercise, the teams have been divided into four tiers. Tier 1 contains the six teams that this odds maker considers most likely to win the World Series. Tier 2 consists of teams that are believed to be competitive, but have less of a chance of winning it all. The third tier is made up of teams that many of us would consider to have some chance of getting to the post-season, but they are far from favorites. The final group, which is the largest and amounts to almost half of the MLB teams, are true long shots.

One strategy dictates that you divvy up the money you want to wager in order to increase your chances of winning. If you are going to do this, and in wagering on futures it certainly makes sense, you’ll need to decide how much of a risk you want to take. The greater the risk, the greater the payoff; however, the greater the risk, the less likely you’ll see a payoff.

Let’s say you’re willing to wager a total of $100, and you decide to put it all on the 300 to 1 Royals. If Kansas City wins the series, you realize $30,000! The chances of that are, however, negligible. Instead, you may want to divide that $100 into 10 bets at $10 each. If you do that, you need to realize that betting on the top six teams means that if any of them win, you have lost money (anywhere from $10 to $65).

However, putting money on any combination of Tier 2 to Tier 4 clubs insures that if you do pick a winner you will, at the very least, break even (the Los Angeles Angels are 10 - 1). Consider that Tier 2 includes the Jays, Astros, Indians, and A’s. All of these teams have been in the mix in recent years.

Looking at the six Tier 3 teams, you’ll find that all of these clubs certainly have a chance of winning and many have been competitive and playoff bound over the past five years. Simply betting these six and the bottom four teams in Tier 2 provides you with some action that has potential to garner a return.

If you decide to venture into Tier 4 with one or two of your bets, you will be lessening your chances of hitting the winner, but if you do hit, your return will be much larger than that from any of the other tiers.

How you wager is entirely up to you. But when putting money down on baseball futures remember a few salient points. When choosing your team(s), carefully analyze each club’s entire pitching staff. Why? Pitching wins championships.

Good, steady pitching will defeat even great hitting at least 70% of the time. Don’t just consider starters. Middle relief and closers are essential in going all the way. You also need to weigh the age of the pitching staff—too old may equal a late season breakdown and too young may mean a late season meltdown. Finally, you will want to look at the depth of the farm system in terms of rookies ready to come up and, more importantly, talent that team may be able to use in a mid-season trade to bolster either its defense or offense. There’s a dearth of quality pitching and even less quality pitching that a club is willing to deal to another team. When push comes to shove always go with sound pitching.

It’s interesting to note that the New York Yankees are the team favored by most to win the World Series. The Yanks have not won it all since their team salary broke the $100,000,000 mark. It is now, of course, over $200,000,000. Although it’s been five years since they’ve brought a championship to New York, since 2000 the Yanks have been the favorite every year.

Remember in 1991 when the Braves and Twins met in the World Series? Before the season began, both had been more than 100 - 1 underdogs. The Twins won it in seven games, with Minnesota pitcher Jack Morris being chosen series MVP. That was a big payoff!

Last year the Chicago White Sox were about 30 - 1 (a Tier 3 team in our example) and the Yankees were the overall favorites at 5 - 4. The White Sox paid $300 on a sawbuck bet.

Of course if you believe in fate, numerology, and curses consider that in 2004 the Red Sox won the crown for the first time since 1918 and in 2005 the White Sox were world champs for the first time since 1917. If that trend remains that means the Chicago Cubs (last World Championship 1908) are next in line. Unfortunately, they’re somewhere around 9 – 1, meaning the payoff is slim considering it’s a futures wager.

Whether you’re putting everything on one team or spreading your dough around, predicting the future World Champions is rarely a sure thing but often it’s a lucrative venture for the people who get it right.

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Article was written by Pat Stevens for http://www.thegreek.com/. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino, recognized by The Sportsbook Review Service with an A+ financial rating, is host to one of the top online sportsbooks. Bet on your favorite baseball, football, basketball or hockey team and more. Reproductions must include link to http://www.thegreek.com

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Do you bet on MLB baseball? If not, you should. There are countless profitable betting opportunities every MLB baseball season. Whether you are already betting on MLB baseball or thinking about starting, this article will give you three solid baseball betting tips. These baseball betting tips will help you refine your selection process so you are getting better value for your money and winning more in the long run.

Baseball Betting Tip One: Don't bet on heavy favorites

As a generally rule, I don't bet on any MLB team that's around -160 or higher. The principle is a sound one. The more money you lay—without getting anything in return—the more you have to win to just break even. Let's look at an example using a heavy favorite of -200. You are laying $2 to win $1. Right away we can see that we must pick winners 66% of the time just to break even.

This is ridiculous. Take the best team in baseball and look at their win percentage. It's generally around 60-62%. Sure, the team playing a heavy favorite is probably not that good, but baseball is a funny game. Rather than getting suckered in, look for other betting options or steer clear of heavy favorites.

Baseball Betting Tip Two: If you must bet a heavy favorite, do it on the run line.

The run line is baseball is a spread and money line combination. In this case, you will be laying 1.5 runs—so your team must win by 2 or more—but you will be knocking down the money laid. Many good teams will beat poor teams by two or more. By betting them on the run line, you can knock off significant money. Perhaps the team you were going to wager on that was over the mark set in tip number one is now down to -120.

Baseball Betting Tip Three: Don't bet on road teams going for the sweep

Yes, road teams do sweep, but it's very hard. Looking over recent history, a home team only gets swept about 10% of the time. Good ones get swept even less. You could say that a secondary tip would be to bet on home teams trying to avoid the sweep. That's up to you. My main point is to simply walk away from games where you like the visitor, but that team is going for the sweep.

There are your three great MLB baseball betting tips. Good Luck!

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At first glance betting a baseball runline may appear to be a bargain, but before you slide head first and start putting your money on these types of wagers, you need to know the facts behind these special plays.

Basics of Baseball Wagering:

Baseball offers two types of wagering opportunities: 1) straight moneylines & 2) runlines. Baseball runlines are really a combination of a moneyline and a 1.5 run pointspread added to the wager. For a runline wager to win, a favorite must win the game by at least two runs. If the team wins by less than two runs, the wager loses. Underdogs, on the other hand, get an additional +1.5 runs and would win the wager if they win the game outright or lose by less than two runs.

By adding the 1.5 run pointspread to the wager, the amount of money you have to lay on favorites is reduced. For example, a game with a standard moneyline favorite of (-260) would generally have a corresponding runline of (-1.5 runs / -140). The payouts for runline underdogs are likewise reduced because of the +1.5 run added advantage. Runlines are most useful for games with very high moneyline favorites, but before you make a runline play, you should be aware of some facts about one-run games.

The Facts About One-Run Games:

Historically 27% of all Major League Baseball games are decided by one run. This number may be surprising to the average bettor. Understand that if you are taking a runline favorite and laying –1.5 runs, you have just significantly reduced your chances of winning that wager, compared to a straight play, by almost 30%. Therefore, the reduction in the amount of money that you have to lay for a runline favorite, in many cases may not justify this added risk, knowing that nearly 3 of 10 games will be decided by one run and will lose. In our opinion, runlines are generally not a recommended play – the added risk outweighing the reward.

Even baseball experts would argue that runlines are not strong bets. Believe it or not, there has been a lot of research conducted on the dynamics of one-run games. The experts appear to be in agreement that a team’s ability has little affect in determining their success in winning one-run games. The consensus of baseball scholars conclude that the final outcomes of one-run games are really based more on luck than any other identifiable factor. It’s true; nothing has been shown to separate a team’s success in one-run games more than pure luck – a good or bad bounce. If this sounds surprising and you have been playing the runline, you may want to stop and reassess your wagering plan. This is just one more reason why playing a runline may not be a strong bet over time.

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So it’s the start of MLB exhibition season and you are all excited, because the season opener is a few weeks away. How exactly do you bet on MLB exhibition anyway? A closer look at MLB exhibition baseball betting reveals how much of a coin toss it really is. Let’s look at some of the fundamentals affecting exhibition games you might want to bet on.

If you are at least a semi-decent sports bettor, the first thing (or one of the first things) you do is check to see if any players are injured or missing. Having a missing star from a team can impact the outcome of a game. In fact, if a major player is out, you might skip the play altogether. Enter exhibition baseball and it’s cloudy playing picture. In an exhibition game, you don’t know who will play until the game is being played. Last I checked no sports book would let you bet on the action after it occurs. If you locate one, let me know.

Looking at the box scores of MLB exhibition games, it becomes obvious that “stars” are played sparingly. For example, a starting pitcher who already has a spot on the team might see up to 2 innings of work. It’s hit and miss with position players. They might play a whole game or simply one at bat. Also, it’s the exhibition so players who have jobs cemented are more likely to test out new pitches, new swings and work on mechanics. The game becomes a roller coaster.

The second issue that affects exhibition baseball betting is what I like to call Hooks. A hook is basically a set point when you, as a manager, make a change. In the regular season, for example, if a relief pitcher comes in and has a rough time, he will most likely be replaced quickly. However, in exhibition baseball, there’s no worry about losing since the games don’t matter. Teams, up by say a run or two, have no problem letting a pitcher give up many runs in one inning. Your team could be cruising along and up comes Mr. Poor Pitcher to the mound. In just one inning of work, since the hooks are non-existent, he could throw away the game.

For these reasons, most MLB exhibition games are setup where the favorite is normally only slightly valued—normally -1.10 to -1.30. You will find that the “home” team is favored always unless the visitor is perceived to be a better team in the regular season. For example, if the home team was the Detroit Tigers and the visitor team was the NY Yankees, the Yankees would most likely be the favorite. These games become multiple hour coin flips. A quick scan of action on one randomly selected exhibition baseball day revealed that of the 10 exhibition games, 6 of the favorites and 4 of the underdogs won. It is pretty even.

A better use for the MLB exhibition season would be to monitor talent and prepare to bet in the regular season. However, if you must throw down action, good luck to you. Some people do better in exhibition betting, because there’s not too much to think about. Many sports bettors simply pick a favorite and bet them.

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Baseball betting can be one of the better odd games at a casino/sportsbook. Unlike other sports such as football & basketball, baseball has many different changing variables that can help bettors pick winners. Over the course of 162 games, trends can begin to develop. Here’s a primer on baseball betting, how it works and a few of the inside tricks you can use to bring home the bucks. From the writers of baseballspreads.com

MONEY LINES (betting sides)

If you are new to betting baseball one of the first things that you will notice is that there is no point spreads involved. Betting baseball involve odds that are represented as a Money Line. Money Lines are odds expressed in terms of a dollar so if you bet a Favorite you will lay more than a dollar in order to win a dollar and if you bet an underdog you will wager a dollar to win more than a dollar. Baseball betting lines are expressed as a dollar with cents and sometimes the decimal will be used. Odds of -1.55 and -155 are the same thing. A favorite that is -155 means that you have to bet 155 to win 100. On the opposite side if one were to bet an underdog at +135 you would only have to bet 100 to win 135. So simply put the favorite is always a minus and the underdog will always be a plus.

Don't let anyone tell you it doesn't matter where you bet baseball. Baseball betting lines are not created equal. Smart baseball bettors will only play a "Dime Line" or a 10-cent line which offers the player the most value for their baseball gambling dollar.

In a game carrying a dime line, a minus -155 favorite would be paired with an underdog of plus +145. If that same game had a 20-cent line, the underdog would get back only +135. Ten cents on the dollar can easily add up to hundreds or thousands of dollars over the course of a baseball season. Even if you consider yourself a small bettor you should always us a sportsbook that offers a true "Dime Line"

PITCHERS

As the pitcher is one of the most important positions, the line or odds are based largely by the starting pitchers listed. Taking this into account you have four options when betting baseball.

Listed Pitcher - A baseball bet is made on a game stating listed pitchers and both of the listed pitchers must start the game. A pitcher is determined to have made a start after he throws the opening pitch for his team. If one, or both, of the listed pitchers do not start the game, the bet has no action and the bettors’ money is refunded.

Specify team pitcher- A baseball bet is made placing a bet specifying just the pitcher starting for the team you are betting on. As long as the pitcher starts for the team you have bet, you have action on the game, no matter or not the opposing teams listed pitcher starts. If the opposing team's pitcher doesn't start, this usually means that a new price is determined for the game.

Team Action- If you bet on a team with normal action, than the bet is valid regardless of a change in starting pitchers for either team. The odds may be adjusted if there is a change in the listed pitchers.

Team action against listed pitcher- In this situation a bet can be made on a team and the bet is good regardless of whether or not the listed pitcher starts for that team as long as the listed pitcher for the other team does in fact start the game.

TOTALS

Baseball totals are fairly straightforward like football or hockey. The total refers to the number of runs both teams score for the entire game. This also includes extra innings if the game goes past 9 innings. Both listed pitchers must start for a total bet to have action. If one, or both, of the listed pitchers do not start, then a bet on the game total has no action, and all bets are refunded.

RUN LINES

The run line involves a team getting 1 1/2 runs (the underdog) while the favorite must win by more than 1 1/2 runs. A money line is also with to the 1 1/2 runs. For a favorite to win on the run line, the team must then win by 2 runs. The odds on a favorite will usually be a plus number because the team must win by at least 2 runs. The money line attached to the team getting 1 1/2 runs will usually be a minus number because the team can still lose by one run and still be a winning bet. The same rules that apply for totals apply for run lines: listed pitchers must start, and the game can not be called early.

Here is and example of a Run Line

Red Sox - 1 1/2 +120 NY Mets + 1 1/2 - 150

If you bet the Red Sox would win by 2 runs or more you would win $1.20 for every $1.00 bet

If you bet that the Mets would win or they can lose by less than two runs you will have to risk $1.50 for every $1.00 you want to win.

We hope that this has given you some basic knowledge for betting baseball. Simply but the two most important things are to shop around for the best odds and of pick more winners than losers.

For more info, tips, tricks and FREE daily baseball picks, head over to baseballspreads.com

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Matthias Koster is a writer for Baseball Spreads. Free picks are at http://www.baseballspreads.com